Treasury expected returns

Expected excess return · horizon × tenorshade = excess ÷ σ
Select a cell to focus it · cell footer: excess ÷ σ and 1-week change
History
History
Rate anchors

σ is modified duration × the 60-month rolling volatility of monthly par-yield changes, scaled by √h; excess ÷ σ is the conditional Sharpe ratio. Cushion is expected excess ÷ modified duration: the parallel yield rise, in bp, that would erase it. Δ columns are changes in expected excess. Coupons received are held as cash, not reinvested, which understates 12-month figures by roughly 5 bp at current short rates.

Anchors todaythe gaps behind the tilt

The rate-gap term averages, with equal weights, the 10-year zero yield minus trend inflation τ (EWMA of core CPI yoy, ν = 0.987) and each tenor's own zero yield minus current core CPI yoy π.

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